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Energy models can prepare us for future energy needs.
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Weather forecasts can prepare us for bad weather. In a perfect world everyone would conduct modelling on an objective basis, but in reality we know that some modelling is biased by the group that commissioned the modelling. Transparency is vital when we are using models to argue for alternative policies. To connect them all we are continuously developing new mathematical techniques and systems. Yet each sector has its own separate modelling communities, languages and preferred approaches. We understand how interconnected these sectors are and it’s vital to consider the whole in our increasingly interconnected world. For example, we no longer view forecasting from agriculture, land use and energy as separate items. We are developing new ways of integrating different forecasting models from different sectors. As modellers here at CSIRO, there are a number of paths we pursue to continuously improve the rigour of our modelling tools. The value of modelling lies in the accuracy of projections. How does a carbon price and other policies change the above factors?īy answering these questions we can then guide and inform investment decisions made by government and industry.What’s the best location for the project, given the location of the existing grid connection points and the variation in sunlight across the country?.How will the cost of solar energy and its competitors improve over time?.What is the future wholesale price of electricity?.As energy modellers, here are some of the questions we’d need to be able to answer: When industry or government wants to understand the prospects of a new energy project, they model the whole energy market, all of the competing technologies and fuels, and the changing needs of consumers and industries using that energy source.Ĭonsider a proposal for a large-scale solar plant.
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In order to work on projects that will have an impact in the future, we need to know what society, the economy and our environment will need in 20-50 years time.Įnergy forecasting and modelling is also invaluable in making informed policy and investment decisions. Is it worth investing in large-scale solar plants? Energy modelling can provide the answer. It has to look at societal changes, economic factors, environmental impacts and technology development. What’s this energy modelling all about?Įnergy modelling is a challenging multidisciplinary task that brings together many elements. It not only makes sense, but is often a requirement when convincing financiers to back a project. Given the multi-billion-dollar cost of such infrastructure, government and energy companies need to know what needs to be in place as society changes and populations shift.Īnd, when you have to make payments on a multi-billion-dollar loan for the next 30 years, you want to know that what you’re building will be relevant to energy use demands of the next 25-50 years.Ī small investment in futures research can narrow the range of possible outcomes when someone is making an energy investment. It’s still operating despite being commissioned 42 years ago. One example is the Munmorah Power Station on the New South Wales Central Coast. Our largest power stations are built with a 40 year lifespan in mind, but that can be extended to 50 years with the help of refurbishments. Most energy infrastructure has a 25-50 year lifespan.
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The Munmorah Power Station is still going strong.